Kolaboro / Delivery-delay index
Delivery forecast: how it is calculated
We estimate the chance that a project is handed over by a given date from what happened to comparable projects whose promised handover has already passed. No AI is involved. The numbers are recomputed from public files on every request.
All markets pooled: 120 projects whose first promised handover has passed; 19 recorded as handed over. Kolaboro promise history, 5 Nov 2026
| Handed over by | Estimated chance | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| the first promised date | 10% | 4% - 15% |
| 6 months after it | 14% | 7% - 21% |
| 12 months after it | 18% | 10% - 26% |
| 18 months after it | 18% | 10% - 26% |
| 24 months after it | 18% | 10% - 26% |
Limitation: most projects we track are still on sale, so projects that handed over on time before we started tracking are under-represented. The estimate is likely to be too low.
Data
Every tracked project with a dated handover promise in /data/promises.json (dated copies of developer pages and research records), joined with the project stage in /data/bali-cases.json. Projects in our conflict-of-interest market are left out.
Time and events
Time is counted in months from the first promised handover we recorded for the project. A handover is an event: at month 0 when the promise was kept, otherwise at the promised date in force when completion was recorded. A project not handed over counts as still waiting today (censored). Projects whose first date is still ahead do not enter the estimate yet. Projects whose date passed with no evidence either way are left out and counted.
Left out (date passed, no evidence either way): 4.
Estimate
Kaplan-Meier estimate of the share still waiting at each month, with a 95% range from the Greenwood variance on the log scale. The chance of handover by month t is one minus that share. For a project already past its first date, the chance is conditional on it not being handed over yet.
When we show a number
A market needs 20 projects past their first promised date and 5 recorded handovers; a developer needs 10 projects and 5 handovers. A point is shown only while 10 or more projects are still observed. Below that, pages say not enough data.
Limitations
- Limitation: most projects we track are still on sale, so projects that handed over on time before we started tracking are under-represented. The estimate is likely to be too low.
- Quarter and year dates are read as the last month of the period, which can only understate lateness.
- An estimate about comparable projects is not a statement about any developer or project. Ask the developer for the current schedule in writing.
Figures today
| Group | Projects past first date | Handovers | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All markets pooled | 120 | 19 | All markets pooled |
| Bali | 18 | 2 | Not enough data |
| Dubai | 8 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Croatia | 5 | 4 | Not enough data |
| Istanbul | 4 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Los Cabos | 4 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Riviera Maya | 4 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Vietnam | 4 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Algarve | 3 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Puerto Vallarta | 3 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Antalya | 2 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Cambodia | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Cayman Islands | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
+52
| Group | Projects past first date | Handovers | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Blanca | 2 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Costa del Sol | 2 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Costa Rica | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Malaysia | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Malta | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Niseko | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Northern Cyprus | 2 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Phuket | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Punta Cana | 2 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Abu Dhabi | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Accra | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Alanya | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Bahamas | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Balearics | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Barbados | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Belize | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Bucharest | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Bulgaria | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Cape Town | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Cape Verde | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Colombia | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Da Nang | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| French Alps | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Hua Hin | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Italy | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Jakarta | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Koh Samui | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Krabi | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Labuan Bajo | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| Las Vegas | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Lisbon | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Madeira | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Maldives | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Manchester | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Mauritius | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Medellín | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Mérida | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Montenegro | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| New Zealand | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Palm Beach County | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Panama | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Panama City | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Philippines | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Portugal | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Puerto Rico | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Saudi Arabia | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Seychelles | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Spain | 1 | 1 | Not enough data |
| St Lucia | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Tallinn | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Tangier | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
| Toronto | 1 | 0 | Not enough data |
Data as JSON /data/promises.json /data/bali-cases.json CC BY 4.0