Kolaboro / Database / Delivery-delay index
Delivery-delay index
How far tracked off-plan projects are behind the first handover date we have on record, market by market, and an honest estimate of each project's odds of handing over within 6 months of it. Every figure can be recomputed in your browser from the open data.
Share past the first promised handover
Markets with at least 5 projects that are not completed and have a usable handover date. Select a market to see each project's months late.
All markets
Every market
"Too few" means fewer than 5 projects stand behind the figure, so we do not show it. Months late are counted from the first handover date on record to this month.
| Market | Tracked | Dated, not completed | Past first date | Share | Past today's date | Median months late | 90th percentile |
|---|
History
One snapshot is frozen on the first run of each month, so the index becomes a time series. It starts with the first snapshot; nothing before it is estimated.
| Month | Taken | Dated, not completed | Past first date | Share | Median | 90th percentile |
|---|
Odds of handover within 6 months
For one project: what share of comparable projects, whose 6-month window has already closed, handed over in time? Enter a project id, such as DXB-001.
Back-test: how well would this have done on closed projects?
Why the comparables are not yet matched on stage and time to handover
Every status, with counts
| Status | Projects | Meaning |
|---|
How it is computed
- Now. The month of the open data file (…), counted as a month index: year × 12 + month.
- Today's handover date. If the overdue watcher says a project is k months past its advertised handover, that date is now − k. Otherwise it is December of the advertised year. December is the latest month the year allows, so this can only understate lateness.
- First handover date on record. Today's date minus the recorded months the date has moved (
delay). With no recorded move we assume none, which can only understate lateness. - Months late.
now − first, for projects not marked completed whose first date has passed. - Share.
projects past the first date / projects not completed with a usable date. Projects with no date, and the few with a past year but no overdue reading, are left out and counted. - Median and 90th percentile. Linear interpolation between ordered values: position
h = (n − 1) × p, valuex⌊h⌋ + (h − ⌊h⌋) × (x⌊h⌋+1 − x⌊h⌋), the same rule as numpy and PERCENTILE.INC. - Minimum sample. A market figure needs at least 5 projects behind it.
- Odds. A project's window is closed when its first date is more than 6 months ago. It counts as on time if it is marked completed and its recorded moves add up to 6 months or less. Comparables are closed projects in the same market (at least 10), else the same country (at least 10). The interval is the Wilson score interval at 95%:
(p + z²/2n ± z√(p(1−p)/n + z²/4n²)) / (1 + z²/n), z = 1.96. No model is trained; this is a count.
Recompute it in your browser
Your browser downloads the open project file (about 1.4 MB), checks its SHA-256 against the one the index was built from, and recomputes every market row, every project's status and the pooled odds with the rules above.
Data: /data/delay-index.json and /data/on-time.json (CC BY 4.0), rebuilt every day from /data/bali-cases.json (SHA-256 …). API: /api/x/v/on-time?id=…. Monthly figures for journalists: press release. Related: asking-price index, transparency index.