{"version":"risk-patterns-1.0","updated":"2026-11-03","model_card":{"name":"Kolaboro risk patterns","version":"1.0","purpose":"Show which tracked projects look unusual on public warning signs compared with all other tracked projects, and why. It ranks; it does not predict.","not_for":"It is not a fraud predictor and not a verdict. No project in our data has a confirmed outcome (fraud, collapse or delivery), so nothing could be trained or tested against outcomes.","data":{"file":"/data/bali-cases.json","sha256":"d20961b579d775b75c2781029b8dc758452006f81f7c3f26f3e55f89305dc73d","dataset_date":"2026-11-03","projects":891,"markets":144},"features":[{"feature":"guaranteed_return_language","label":"Advertises guaranteed returns","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":4.8,"z_when_present":4.44},{"feature":"advertised_yield_pct","label":"Advertised yield, % a year","kind":"number, mostly zero","present_pct":21.2,"z_when_present":1.93,"median_when_present":10.0,"scale_when_present":4.4478,"size_z_cap":4,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"overdue_months","label":"Months past the advertised completion","kind":"number, mostly zero","present_pct":3.4,"z_when_present":5.36,"median_when_present":5.0,"scale_when_present":4.4478,"size_z_cap":4,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"delay_months","label":"Months the completion date has moved","kind":"number, mostly zero","present_pct":11.6,"z_when_present":2.77,"median_when_present":12.0,"scale_when_present":8.8956,"size_z_cap":4,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"no_permit_claimed","label":"No permit or licence claimed","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":56.3,"z_when_present":0.88},{"feature":"permit_contradicted","label":"Permit claim contradicted by a register or document","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":2.2,"z_when_present":6.6},{"feature":"no_deposit_protection","label":"No deposit protection stated","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":78.3,"z_when_present":0.53},{"feature":"contradicted_checks","label":"Checks contradicted by an independent source","kind":"number, mostly zero","present_pct":10.9,"z_when_present":2.86,"median_when_present":1.0,"scale_when_present":0.0646,"size_z_cap":4,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"contradicted_claims_share","label":"Share of claims contradicted","kind":"number","median":0.111,"scale":0.1647,"scale_basis":"MAD x 1.4826","present_pct":76.3,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"public_problem_flags","label":"Public problems reported (disputes, complaints, regulator action)","kind":"number, mostly zero","present_pct":4.9,"z_when_present":4.39,"median_when_present":1.0,"scale_when_present":0.3133,"size_z_cap":4,"z_cap":8},{"feature":"register_not_approved","label":"Not on the official approval register checked","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":0.2,"z_when_present":8.0},{"feature":"satellite_no_change","label":"Sold as under construction, no visible change on satellite","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":1.3,"z_when_present":8.0},{"feature":"front_loaded_payment_plan","label":"Share of the price due before completion, % (advertised payment plan)","kind":"number, where known","present_pct":19.6,"known_projects":175,"median":60.0,"scale":29.652,"scale_basis":"MAD x 1.4826 among projects where it is known","z_cap":8},{"feature":"no_track_record","label":"No developer track record found","kind":"binary","prevalence_pct":34.2,"z_when_present":1.39}],"features_not_available":[{"feature":"payment_plan_for_every_project","why":"The front-loaded feature uses only advertised plans that state a clear share due on completion (175 projects). Plans written as ranges, dated schedules or options are left out rather than guessed."},{"feature":"price_vs_registered_sales","why":"Advertised price per m2 versus official sales in the same area exists for 21 Dubai projects only (see /prices/). Too sparse across all markets to be a fair feature yet."}],"method":["Each feature is turned into a robust z-score against all 891 tracked projects. Yes/no signs: (1 - p) / sqrt(p (1 - p)) when present, where p is the share of projects showing it, so a rare sign weighs more than a common one. Numbers: (x - median) / (1.4826 x MAD). Numbers that most projects do not have at all (overdue months, contradicted checks, public problems): the same rarity term for having any, plus a robust z of the size among the projects that have it (0 to 4). Every contribution is capped at 8, and only the risky direction counts: absence of a sign adds nothing.","The score is the sum of these z-scores, so every point of it is traceable to one feature. Projects at or above the 95th percentile of the score are labelled \"unusual\", at or above the 75th \"somewhat unusual\".","Cross-check: an isolation forest (500 trees, random_state 7, scikit-learn) on the raw features (an unknown payment plan is coded as its own value), with no labels. Its ranking is published next to ours; where both put a project in the top 5%%, the pattern is not an artefact of our weighting."],"agreement":{"spearman_rank_correlation":0.642,"top5_both_methods":32,"top5_size":45},"thresholds":{"unusual_score_from":12.16,"somewhat_unusual_from":5.47},"limits":["Features come from what developers publish and what we could check; a project that publishes less can look calmer than it is.","Common signs (no deposit protection stated, no permit claimed) weigh little because most projects show them; that is a property of the peer group, not a judgement that they are safe.","Peers are all tracked projects in every market, so market norms (for example yields in Bali) affect scores.","Features overlap with the public disclosure score; this view adds rarity weighting and the cross-check, not new facts.","Scores change when the dataset changes; each version is tied to the dataset SHA-256 above."]},"summary":{"unusual":45,"somewhat_unusual":178,"typical":668},"keys":{"m":"market","s":"score (sum of z)","r":"percentile of score among all projects","if":"percentile of isolation-forest anomaly score","lvl":"label","c":"[feature, z contribution, raw value] for every feature that contributes"},"top":["PAL-001","VNM-001","MED-001","PHK-006","MAN-003","RMY-013","BHS-001","BALI-050","NCY-001","BHX-003","IST-004","BALI-012","DXB-048","BJV-003","NZL-002","BALI-016","DXB-050","PAN-002","SUM-003","SLU-001","ALG-002","SEZ-001","BALI-056","NYC-002","PVR-001"],"markets":[{"market":"Bali","projects":76,"unusual":11,"median_score":5.96},{"market":"Cambodia","projects":9,"unusual":0,"median_score":5.85},{"market":"Algarve","projects":8,"unusual":1,"median_score":5.28},{"market":"Koh Samui","projects":12,"unusual":0,"median_score":5.11},{"market":"Lombok","projects":24,"unusual":0,"median_score":5.02},{"market":"Georgia","projects":12,"unusual":0,"median_score":4.66},{"market":"Malaysia","projects":19,"unusual":0,"median_score":4.11},{"market":"Northern Cyprus","projects":8,"unusual":1,"median_score":4.04},{"market":"Ras Al Khaimah","projects":17,"unusual":1,"median_score":3.26},{"market":"Oman","projects":14,"unusual":0,"median_score":3.12},{"market":"Costa Rica","projects":9,"unusual":1,"median_score":2.99},{"market":"Montenegro","projects":8,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.96},{"market":"Greece","projects":11,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.79},{"market":"Mérida","projects":8,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.79},{"market":"Phuket","projects":21,"unusual":3,"median_score":2.79},{"market":"Portugal","projects":9,"unusual":1,"median_score":2.79},{"market":"Sharjah","projects":10,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.79},{"market":"Los Cabos","projects":15,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.76},{"market":"Riviera Maya","projects":21,"unusual":1,"median_score":2.76},{"market":"Miami","projects":13,"unusual":0,"median_score":2.34},{"market":"Cyprus","projects":9,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.95},{"market":"Bangkok","projects":8,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.93},{"market":"Istanbul","projects":13,"unusual":1,"median_score":1.93},{"market":"Vietnam","projects":11,"unusual":3,"median_score":1.91},{"market":"Puerto Vallarta","projects":12,"unusual":1,"median_score":1.52},{"market":"Sri Lanka","projects":10,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.45},{"market":"Egypt","projects":13,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.41},{"market":"Mauritius","projects":9,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.39},{"market":"Abu Dhabi","projects":19,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.32},{"market":"Philippines","projects":14,"unusual":0,"median_score":1.07},{"market":"Costa del Sol","projects":20,"unusual":0,"median_score":0.88},{"market":"Spain","projects":11,"unusual":0,"median_score":0.88},{"market":"Dubai","projects":71,"unusual":2,"median_score":0.67},{"market":"Gold Coast","projects":8,"unusual":0,"median_score":0.53},{"market":"Pattaya","projects":12,"unusual":0,"median_score":0.53}],"projects":{"BALI-014":{"m":"Bali","s":2.45,"r":44.7,"if":52.5,"lvl":"typical","c":[["advertised_yield_pct",1.93,10.0],["no_deposit_protection",0.53,1.0]]},"BALI-022":{"m":"Bali","s":2.45,"r":44.8,"if":52.6,"lvl":"typical","c":[["advertised_yield_pct",1.93,10.0],["no_deposit_protection",0.53,1.0]]},"BALI-007":{"m":"Bali","s":1.41,"r":21.2,"if":9.3,"lvl":"typical","c":[["no_permit_claimed",0.88,1.0],["no_deposit_protection",0.53,1.0]]},"BALI-018":{"m":"Bali","s":3.75,"r":64.2,"if":52.7,"lvl":"typical","c":[["advertised_yield_pct",2.38,12.0],["contradicted_claims_share",0.84,0.25],["no_deposit_protection",0.53,1.0]]},"BALI-023":{"m":"Bali","s":6.21,"r":78.9,"if":58.1,"lvl":"somewhat 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